A potential U.S. ban on TikTok could redirect billions in advertising revenue to Meta, with analysts predicting the social media giant would capture over half of TikTok’s U.S. ad spend, according to a new WARC Media analysis.
Key Findings
TikTok’s Revenue at Risk: If banned, TikTok stands to lose nearly 12 billionin U.S. ad revenue in 2025—its largest market though global growth may offset some losses. Without a ban, the platform’s ad revenue is projected to hit 32.4 billion worldwide this year, accounting for 11% of total social media ad spend.
Meta’s Windfall: WARC estimates 55% of TikTok’s U.S. ad dollars would shift to Meta platforms, with Instagram absorbing 40% and Facebook claiming 15%. YouTube and other short-form video competitors are also likely beneficiaries.
User Engagement Edge: TikTok’s U.S. users average 44 monthly hours on the app—more than double Instagram’s usage—highlighting advertisers’ challenge in replicating its reach.
Uncertainty Persists Amid Deadline
Despite the looming April 6 deadline for TikTok’s forced divestiture, negotiations with potential buyers remain stalled. Former President Donald Trump has signaled openness to an extension, while the administration reportedly engages with four investor groups.
Long-Term Trends
Even without a ban, TikTok’s U.S. revenue share is declining—projected to drop to 34% globally by 2026, down from 43.3% in 2022—as international markets grow faster.
Industry Impact: A ban would accelerate Meta’s dominance but leave a void in short-form video advertising, with analysts urging brands to diversify strategies across emerging platforms.
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